Groundhog Day

Somehow, I feel as though I've already posted this . . .

Today is, as every radio DJ and morning news talker has been careful to remind us, Groundhog Day. "Punxsutawney Phil" did his thing at dawn this morning and saw his shadow. That means we're in for six more weeks of winter, right?

Probably not. According to the Stormfax weather 'blog, Phil has an accuracy rate of about 39%, which is to say, worse than flipping a coin.

It's also unclear to me how large the groundhog's area of prediction is supposed to be -- if it's accurate in Pennsylvania but not in Massachusetts, does that count as right or wrong? What if Eastern Pennsylvania gets an early spring but Western Pennsylvania gets walloped by an arctic air mass in April? What if Punxsutawney gets wintry weather until May but the entire northern hemisphere otherwise has an early thaw? Obviously more research is needed.

Anyway, until tomorrow, Happy Groundhog Day.