The big buzz in the world of crackpotdom right now is the impending End of the World in 2012. In case you've somehow missed it, the story is that the Mayan calendar (in this case the approximately 400-year "Long Count" cycle) is due to end in 2012; obviously that means Something Big And Probably Bad will happen then. At present the leading SBAPB candidate is a close encounter or even collision with the imaginary planet "Nibiru."
Debunking this is about as easy -- and as productive -- as debunking a six-year-old's worry that there is a monster under the bed. Which is to say, it's impossible. You can show the six-year-old there is no monster under the bed as many times as you wish, but if the six-year-old wants to believe, you won't be able to convince him.
NASA scientist David Morrison has an excellent PDF article available for free at the Astronomical Society of the Pacific's Web site, debunking the 2012 myth like there's no tomorrow. Among other things, he points out how much of the current furor has been deliberately ginned up by the marketing department at Columbia Pictures to promote their upcoming film 2012 (which looks to be a pretty blatant knockoff of When Worlds Collide). Dr. Morrison's article is worth reading, but I'm afraid the only people who would be convinced by it are people who don't believe in post-Christian bogus millennialist viral marketing apocalyptic bullshit anyway.
That's the problem with all debunking of paranormal nonsense: debunking is by definition an appeal to reason, to hard evidence, to logic and common sense. People who think logically and want scientific evidence before they'll believe something won't fall for crackpottery in the first place. The believers are beyond the reach of the debunker's tools.
I've been wondering if other techniques might be more effective: should debunkers fall back on simple scorn and mockery? Or make peace with existing established religions in order to combat the brushfire waves of idiocy which otherwise rage unchecked? Suggestions?
UPDATE: Phil Plait went through all this back in 2003 at his old "Bad Astronomy" Web site. See his savagely polite debunking of the "Nibiru" nonsense. And what did he accomplish? Six years later this garbage has moved from a couple of crackpots with Web sites to a major motion picture.
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