Solar Weather Forecast

According to NOAA, the next solar cycle should peak in about 2013, but with a record low number of sunspots.

The Sun follows a cycle of sunspot activity, with a roughly 11-year period between times of low activity. But the length can vary. Fewer sunspots mean fewer solar flares, less heating of the Earth's upper atmosphere, and fewer auroral displays. (The actual scale of the flares, etc., don't seem to be correlated -- as the linked article points out, one of the worst episodes of solar activity on record came during a similar low cycle.)

There's also a connection between solar activity and climate -- which is why NOAA, rather than, say, NASA, is the agency which keeps tabs on sunspots. Low sunspot activity seems to have a connection with cooler weather. The "Maunder Minimum" of the 17th Century, a period when there may have been no sunspots at all for several decades, correlates pretty neatly with the "little Ice Age" of notably cold weather in Europe.

If all this is true -- and we're talking about estimates and correlations only -- then the next few years should see warmer weather. Let's check back in, oh, 2015 or so and see how it turned out.

Comments

[celebrity]

Good info. Thanks

[celebrity]

Informative blog, useful. Written clearly