Tomorrow is July 16, an interesting anniversary. Two milestones in technology both happened on that date. The first, in 1945, was the Trinity test -- the first atomic bomb detonation in the empty expanse of desert near Alamogordo, New Mexico. Twenty-four years later, on another July 16, three men atop a giant rocket in the steamy Florida summer set off on their way to the Moon.
These are quite possibly the two most important events of the 20th Century. Certainly they have massive symbolic importance -- the two sides of the technological coin. Atomic power gave humans the ability to cause massive destruction, while space travel allows us to explore and perhaps transform the Universe. It is the fundamental paradox of technology that every advance which increases your power to do good also expands your ability to do evil.
To some people, this paradox is intolerable. The potential misuse of technology outweighs any possible benefit. They want to renounce technology and go back to an imagined simpler past.
Alas, the genie never goes back in the bottle. With the possibility of Japan's ban on firearms during the Tokugawa era, history demonstrates that people never give up new technologies, at least not until something even newer replaces it. Even during the "Dark Ages" of early medieval Europe, very little Roman or Greek technology was lost -- Classical science and literature may have vanished, but the Middle Ages actually were a time of technological innovation.
For decades, the United States has been desperately trying to keep the nuclear genie in its bottle. Through economic aid (=bribes) and sanctions up to and including outright invasion, the U.S. has struggled to prevent nuclear proliferation. There have been short-term successes, but time is against us. Someday most nations will have access to nuclear weapons. Banning them won't do any good -- that will just mean the weapons will be kept, or put in the hands of "deniable" proxies.
Sound grim? Perhaps. The point is, the only cure for technology's dark side is -- technology. You can't make people be good, and you can't take the power to be bad away from them. The only other option is to put as much power in the hands of everyone and hope for the best. A human civilization planted on two or three worlds and dozens of smaller habitats throughout the Solar System would be much less vulnerable than our present state, stuck on one world. Let's hope we can realize the promise of Apollo rather than the threat of Trinity.
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