There Goes the Neighborhood

So if you're worried about Giant Rocks from Space, where should you live?  A group of researchers led by Nick Bailey of the University of Southampton have studied the problem.  They've come up with a global analysis of what places are most at risk from asteroid impacts.

Obviously, if you're directly under the asteroid when it hits, you're vapor.  But if you're outside the immediate impact zone, your biggest worry is tsunamis.  Since Earth's surface has lots of ocean, an asteroid strike can create dangerous waves which can cause a lot of destruction at great distances from the actual impact site.

So who's most at risk?  Countries with lots of people and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas:  China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and the United States are the big candidates for massive population loss.  In terms of material damage it's the USA, China, Sweden, Canada, and Japan. 

Australia, despite having a lot of coastline, is suprisingly low on the risk scale -- perhaps because there are large reefs and island chains protecting its shores.  Africa, with its steep and harbor-poor coasts is also quite safe.  The deserts of Central Asia are naturally tsunami-resistant. 

Here's a suggestion:  I think we should require any SPACEGUARD-type organization to be headquartered in a highly vulnerable location like Hong Kong or Amsterdam.  If they start trying to "redeploy" to Ulan Bator it's time to worry.

Comments

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What felicitous timing! I was just talking about "Big Rock" movies and cursing the day they introduced a warped version of the term "extinction-level event" into common conversation.